Across Ireland, communities are already dealing with the effects of a changing climate. Storms are more frequent, rainfall is heavier, and sea levels continue to rise. Local authorities know climate risk is increasing but many are less clear on where that risk concentrates and who carries the greatest burden.
National direction, local challenge
In 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency’s National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) and Government of Ireland’s Sectoral Adaptation Plans reinforced the need for faster, more targeted adaptation. The Climate Change Advisory Council has also called for increased investment in climate resilience, particularly for vulnerable groups. The challenge is turning national direction into local decisions.
For County Louth, these questions are immediate. As Ireland’s second most densely populated county, with over half its population living within 5 km of the coast, it faces growing exposure to storm surges, flooding, and other climate-driven hazards. Rather than waiting for impacts to escalate, the county has taken a more deliberate approach.
Its recent Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), delivered under the EU-funded CLIMAAX programme, was developed to inform near-term decisions on investment, protection, and service planning. The assessment combines harmonised datasets with local evidence to prioritise risks while remaining grounded in local conditions, offering a practical reference point for other organisations facing similar climate pressures.
CLIMAAX framework
CLIMAAX is an EU wide initiative enabling local governments to assess climate risks through a consistent, inclusive, and practical methodology. More than 50 regional and local authorities across Europe are currently implementing the framework, including Ireland, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the Nordics. This common approach ensures that best practices, data, and lessons learned are shared to strengthen collective adaptation efforts.
Louth is one of only two Irish counties participating in CLIMAAX. This places it in a position to test how EU-level methods translate into local decision-making and how local evidence can refine national-scale assessments. Phase 1 of the project concluded in September 2025, establishing an initial risk baseline using EU datasets and future climate scenarios. Phase 2 is now underway, with a focus on refining this analysis using deeper local insights. This will be followed by a third phase, due for completion at the end of 2026, where adaptation strategies, governance structures, and funding pathways will be developed with local communities.
Understanding the risks
Louth’s CRA identified three priority climate hazards:
Coastal and river flooding
Flooding represents Louth’s most significant and costly climate risk. Rising sea levels will intensify coastal storm surges, particularly around Dundalk and Drogheda, while river flooding already threatens substantial land areas. Projections indicate that river flood depths could almost double by 2080.
Heavy rainfall
While annual rainfall may not drastically increase, rainfall intensity is expected to rise significantly. By mid century, the most extreme rainfall events could become 12% heavier, challenging drainage systems and heightening flash flood risks in urban areas.
Windstorms
Storms like Eowyn (2025) have demonstrated the disruptive potential of damaging winds. While projection uncertainties remain, modelling suggests extreme windstorm events, causing damage exceeding €10 million, could occur more than three times as often by 2060.
From insight to action
Phase 2 aims to deepen and localise the assessment through
Local datasets
High resolution local datasets (e.g., detailed flood studies, infrastructure assessments).
Community engagement
Community engagement to capture lived experience and local priorities
Risk mapping
Granular risk mapping to support targeted interventions
These outputs will feed directly into Phase 3, where adaptation strategies, governance structures, and funding pathways will be developed with local communities. The timing ensures alignment with the next Louth County Development Plan (LCDP) and other strategic initiatives.
Why this matters beyond Louth
Climate hazards do not stop at county borders, and the pressures facing County Louth are shared by many local authorities across Ireland. Coastal exposure, ageing infrastructure, and uneven vulnerability are shared challenges. What differs is how clearly those risks are understood and how directly they are linked to planning and investment decisions.
Louth’s approach shows the value of a structured, comparable approach that combines national and EU-level data with local evidence and community insight. By moving from high-level risk signals to place-specific analysis, the model provides a scalable way for other local authorities to make clearer choices about where to focus resources, how to protect essential services, and which groups face the greatest exposure.
The Louth project illustrates how adaptation can be both technically robust and socially grounded. It shapes a climate risk assessment that is more than a compliance exercise and increases its practical value for councils working to meet NCCRA obligations while responding to local conditions.
The county’s Climate Risk Assessment is not just a local study. It shows how climate risk can be assessed in a way that is consistent, comparable, and usable for decision-making. By grounding analysis in data, testing it against local realities, and linking it directly to development planning, local authorities can move beyond broad risk awareness towards more targeted, defensible action as climate impacts intensify over the coming decades.
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