Geopolitical concerns nearly double for Irish mid-market firms

Press release

Geopolitical concerns nearly double for Irish mid-market firms

27 Jun 2025

Concerns about geopolitical disruption almost double among medium sized Irish companies – Grant Thornton International Business Report

• Pessimistic mood creeping into Irish business outlook with a 25% nosedive in predicted profitability over the next twelve months.
• Global economic uncertainty compounded existing business pressures like labour costs and talent shortages.

Friday, 27 June 2025. Dublin, Ireland – The level of optimism among Irish medium- sized firms has taken a sharp fall, with an 18% contraction in the last quarter, according to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR).

The IBR, which provides insights into the attitudes of 10,000 mid-market businesses across 32 economies, revealed that while 63% of companies surveyed in Ireland are optimistic about the outlook for the economy over the next twelve months, this stands in sharp contrast to the Q1 findings where 81% of businesses surveyed stated a higher level of confidence.

The research, carried out across April and May, shows that the change in mood has swept through Irish mid-market firms’ view of their performance over the next year, with a 25% nosedive in predicted profitability (Q1: 80% vs Q2: 55%), a 9% decline in expected revenues (Q1: 77% vs Q2: 68%); and a 10% spike in the expectation of reduced demand (Q1: 17% vs Q2: 27%).

International tariff disputes are a likely factor in the changing mood of Irish medium-sized enterprises, with almost double the level of concern among these companies (Q2: 26% vs Q1: 16%) that geopolitical disruption would be a key constraint on their business.

This is starkly illustrated in the sharp fall in the percentage of Irish mid-market firms expecting an increase in revenue from non-domestic markets over the next 12 months, contracting from 40% in Q4 2024 to just 16% in Q2 2025.

While the increase in concern about geopolitical disruption is significant, it is still short of the overall level of concern across the Eurozone, which stands at 44%, according to the research.

The global uncertainty is similarly reflected in Grant Thornton’s US CFO survey, also out this week, which reports that 46% of US CFOs surveyed are pessimistic about the U.S. economy, with 46% adjusting their supply chains to reduce the impact of tariffs.

The worsening outlook in Ireland has had a knock-on effect across a range of areas, with a 10% fall (Q1: 52% vs Q2: 42%) in the amount of Irish medium-sized firms planning to invest in sustainability initiatives. This is compounding other challenges in the economy, where Irish mid-market firms are already experiencing a range of issues.

For example, almost double (Q1: 27% vs Q2: 50%) the number of firms predict their labour costs will rise over the next twelve months. Similarly, there was an 18% spike (Q1: 41% vs Q2: 59%) in the percentage of companies that saw the availability of skilled workers as a key constraint on their business.

Commenting on the latest International Business Report, Grant Thornton Head of Industry, Martin Shanahan, said: 

Medium-sized firms, a key component of the economy, are navigating a period of global uncertainty with resilience and adaptability. While some companies are reassessing their growth forecasts, this reflects a thoughtful and strategic response to evolving global dynamics rather than a lack of ambition. 

Geopolitical shifts and economic pressures are prompting businesses to think more critically about where and how they invest, especially in key areas like sustainability. These challenges, including labour costs and talent shortages, are not new—but Irish mid-market firms have consistently shown their ability to innovate and adapt.

The findings echo those of the Grant Thornton US CFO survey released this week, which shows an increase in pessimism amongst US CFOs earlier in the year, with companies taking proactive steps to deal with tariff and economic uncertainty in areas like pricing strategies; supply chain; cost containment and financial planning.  

Diversification and innovation remain powerful tools for progress. The business success stories of the future will be those companies that embrace change, invest wisely, and plant the seeds today for a more vibrant, resilient economy.

Read the global press release for a broader view of the mid-market outlook.

ENDS

About Grant Thornton

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About Grant Thornton's International Business Report (IBR)

The Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) is the world’s leading mid-market business survey. Launched in 1992, IBR provides deep analysis and insight into the views and expectations of thousands of business leaders globally.

The research runs quarterly, interviewing senior executives within mid-market organisations across 32 economies, from all industry sectors. Questionnaires are translated into local languages and fieldwork is undertaken through a mixed methodology, including online and telephone platforms.

The Q2 research was conducted between 7 April and 23 May, 2025.

Experts / Authors

Martin Shanahan

Martin Shanahan serves as the Head of Industry for Grant Thornton Advisors LLC, overseeing operations, strategy and growth initiatives for the firm across a range of industries