Exchequer returns November 2025 – Peter Vale commentary

November is the single most significant month of the year for the Exchequer. And there was good news on the tax receipts front.

Despite concerns that unemployment has ticked up slightly in recent months, income tax returns remain very solid.  November returns were 7.7% up on the same month last year, after a similarly strong October.  The figures suggest that wage inflation remains a feature in the Irish employment market.

VAT returns in November were also strong, up 9.3% on November 2024.   With tariff uncertainty reduced, consumers are continuing to spend, which augurs well for the critical months of November and December.

The November corporation tax receipts were exceptional, up 37% on what was a strong November 2024, on a like for like basis.  While the strong June figures pointed to a positive November, huge uncertainty remained given the ongoing reliance on such a small group of companies.

The extraordinarily positive figures reflect the profitability of large groups based here.  While no split is provided by the Department, the November figures are likely driven by the technology sector in particular.  2025 returns look set to finish the clear close to triple 2019 returns, which is an incredible statistic.

Indeed, with corporation tax returns for large groups set to be boosted by the new 15% rate next year, 2026 receipts are likely to post another record, potentially hitting €35bn.

Overall, the Exchequer is a strong position and looks set to finish the year with another significant surplus.