Exchequer returns September 2025 – Peter Vale commentary

After a relatively volatile August for the Exchequer, September saw another mixed bag of figures on the tax receipts front.

After strong August returns, income tax receipts dipped in September, down 2.2% on the same month last year. Overall this year, income tax receipts appear to have plateaued, perhaps indicating a softening in salary and wage inflation.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the VAT figures for September held up, ahead by 4.7% on the same month last year. It appears consumers have become immune to the potential impact on Ireland – consumer spending remains strong.

After a very poor August, September corporation tax receipts were solid if unspectacular. Adjusted year to date figures are a relatively modest 2.5% ahead of last year, after several years of stellar growth. However the last quarter is key for corporation tax receipts, so the picture could quickly change.

Volatility in corporation tax receipts has a been a feature of the year to date, which continues to make estimating any year end Budget surplus difficult. However today’s figures are unlikely to alter Budget 2026 plans, with a tax package of c€1.5bn still expected.