Exchequer returns June 2025 – Peter Vale commentary

All eyes were on the corporation tax number in today’s Exchequer figures.

After a wobble in May when weak corporation tax figures were recorded, the bounce back in the June figures will provide some reassurance to the Government.

Solid figures in June usually signal positive receipts for the critical month of November, which should help maintain the current surplus and give some surety in the Budget planning process.

The June corporation tax figures are likely to have been boosted by a strong technology sector performance in particular.

While the bounce in corporation tax is very welcome, it underscores the volatility in this tax head and our reliance on such a small cohort of MNCs.

In other taxes, income tax receipts have dipped marginally versus forecast, but at this stage should not give cause for concern.

June is a non month for VAT receipts but year to date returns are running 5.8% ahead of 2024, reflecting ongoing strong consumer spending.

Capital taxes remain significantly ahead of 2024 figures, another indicator of the resilience of the Irish economy at a time of global uncertainty.

Overall, strong corporation tax returns the highlight of another solid month for the Exchequer.