Exchequer returns October 2025 – Peter Vale commentary

After a choppy September, October’s Exchequer figures were generally positive on the tax receipts front.

Income tax receipts in September took a surprising dip.  October figures were more positive, up 5.5% on the same month last year.  However with the economy at close to full employment, the figures in recent months indicate a softening in salary and wage inflation.

October is a quiet month for VAT receipts but year to date figures are 4.3% ahead – with tariff uncertainty diminished, consumer spending remains strong.  Disposable income remains high, which augurs well for the critical months of November and December.

Corporation tax receipts have been volatile this year.  While the October figures are well ahead of the same month last year, interestingly they are back at 2019 levels.  October’s figures tend to be driven by results in the pharmaceutical sector, with significant volatility in the October figures in recent years.  However with progress on pharma tariff negotiations last month, there will be hope that the impact on Ireland’s corporation tax receipts is less than originally feared.

Overall, the Exchequer position continues to look healthy but uncertainty regarding corporation tax receipts in particular remains.