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Exchequer returns November 2022 – Peter Vale commentary

The latest Exchequer figures again show the remarkable resilience of the Irish economy. Despite significant global headwinds, November’s tax returns were strong across the board.

Despite concern around recent job losses, income tax figures were robust. It is possible that the natural lag before the impact of job losses is felt will see income tax figures slip in coming months. However, the Department will hope that the relatively low number of redundancies will mean income tax receipts remain buoyant.  A year-to-date increase of 16% is impressive.

In what may surprise many, VAT receipts also remain strong, 19% ahead of the month of November and 22% ahead year to date.

It is unquestionable that increasing energy costs and interest bills have adversely impacted disposable income.  However strong wage inflation may have mitigated this, enabling consumers to continue spending. The Department will be keeping a close eye on the crucial Christmas period figures.

November is a key month for corporation tax returns and the figures were again stellar. The November numbers for the most part reflect full calendar year 2022 profit forecasts and are consistent with strong returns earlier in the year.  The figures show the resilience of certain MNCs based in Ireland against global headwinds, in particular those in the technology and pharma sectors.

Corporation tax returns year to date are €7.6bn ahead of the same period in 2021.

While uncertainty remains the key theme, there will be huge relief in Government circles at the latest Exchequer figures. Tax receipts running €15.2bn ahead of the same period in 2021 is a remarkable performance as we enter the final month of the year.